@article{oai:miyazaki-u.repo.nii.ac.jp:00003252,
 author = {竹下, 伸一 and Takeshita, Shinichi and 多炭, 雅博 and 内嶋, 善兵衛 and 岩倉, 尚哉 and 山本, 泰嗣 and 平木, 永二 and Tasumi, Masahiro and Uchijima, Zenbei and Iwakura, Naoya and Yamamoto, Taishi and Hiragi, Eiji},
 journal = {宮崎大学農学部研究報告, Bulletin of the Faculty of Agriculture University of Miyazaki},
 month = {Feb},
 note = {This study evaluates the impact of global warming on rice cultivation in Miyazaki prefecture, focusing on the grain damage caused by high temperature during ripening of rice.
Evaluation was made by predicting air temperature after ear emergence for two typical rice cultivars (i.e. Koshihikari for early-season cultivation and Hinohikari for normal-season cultivation) in Miyazaki. The dates of ear emergence were estimated by employing a dynamic prediction model of rice development, after calibrating the parameters using actual observation data. Air temperature conditions of 50 and 100 years later were predicted by adopting the Japanese Standard Climate Scenario of Japan Meteorological Agency.
The result indicated that ear emergences earlier than present, for about 6 days in early-season cultivation and about 3 days in normal-season cultivation. Also, the air-temperature of ripening periods becomes higher than present, particularly in normal-season cultivation. It was suggested that shifting the transplanting date to later or eariler was an effective for avoiding grain damage caused by high temperature during ripening of rice., 本研究は, 水稲栽培について登熟期の高温障害に関して, 地球温暖化条件下での宮崎県の水稲栽培に与える影響を検討した.  宮崎県の特徴である早期水稲と普通期水稲の2品種について検討することとし, 気象庁による気候統一シナリオによる約50年後, 約100年後の温暖化予測気温を用い, 実測値によりパラメータ同定を行った水稲の発育動態予測モデルを用いて出穂期を推定し, 出穂後の平均気温について検討した.
その結果, 早期栽培では約6日, 普通期栽培では約3日出穂日が早まり, 出穂後の気温が高くなること, とくに普通期水稲の登熟期が高くなることが予想された.  そこで登熟期の高温回避策として移植日の変更についてその効果を検討したところ, 移植日の早期化および晩期化が有効であることが確認された.},
 pages = {49--56},
 title = {気候統一シナリオによる宮崎県の水稲生育予測},
 volume = {57},
 year = {2011},
 yomi = {タケシタ, シンイチ and タスミ, マサヒロ and ウチジマ, ゼンベイ and イワクラ, ナオヤ and ヤマモト, タイシ and ヒラギ, エイジ}
}