In recent years, with the large-scale complexity of projects and changes in the environment surrounding projects, the problem of ”delay risk”, that is, the problem that any activity can cause unexpected delays and lead to delivery deadlines, has become more serious. Therefore, in recent years, project managers have been required to manage delay risks at various project sites. In other words, the conventional management of three factors of cost, resource, and time is not enough, and it is necessary to manage the schedule by considering the trade-off balance of these four factors and the delay risk. However, since there is no way to quantify the delay risk, only the delay risk management that can give the schedule margin with experience and intuition was performed.As a result, problems often occurred, such as easily exceeding dedlines and costs or causing wasteful schedules. In this research, we aim to develop a schedule management method considering delay risk. In previous research, a method was developed to evaluate the magnitude of delay risk based on the size of the solution space of the schedule / float. In addition, we devised two types of calculation methods (method 1 and method 2) for finding the delay risk with the proposed method. However, method 1 had a problem of computational complexity, and method 2 had a problem of accuracy of the calculation results. In this paper, we propose a new calculation method that requires less calculation than Method 1 and has higher calculation accuracy than Method 2. In addition, we evaluate the complexity of the proposed method and the accuracy of the calculation results through verification experiments using application examples.
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プロジェクトのリスクマネジメントのためのサポートシステムに関する研究
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